Who is Bob, and Why is he your Uncle?

I've been hearing this phrase around, and just had to look it up.
Originally posted on www.worldwidewords.org

[Q] What is the origin and actual meaning of bob’s your uncle?

[A] This is a catchphrase which seemed to arise out of nowhere and yet has had a long period of fashion and is still going strong. It’s known mainly in Britain and Commonwealth countries, and is really a kind of interjection. It’s used to show how simple it is to do something: “You put the plug in here, press that switch, and Bob’s your uncle!”.

The most attractive theory—albeit suspiciously neat—is that it derives from a prolonged act of political nepotism. The Victorian prime minister, Lord Salisbury (family name Robert Cecil, pronounced ) appointed his rather less than popular nephew Arthur Balfour to a succession of posts. The most controversial, in 1887, was chief secretary of Ireland, a post for which Balfour—despite his intellectual gifts—was considered unsuitable. The Dictionary of National Biography says: “The country saw with something like stupefaction the appointment of the young dilettante to what was at the moment perhaps the most important, certainly the most anxious office in the administration”.

As the story goes, the consensus among the irreverent in Britain was that to have Bob as your uncle was a guarantee of success, hence the expression. Since the very word nepotism derives from the Italian word for nephew (from the practice of Italian popes giving preferment to nephews, a euphemism for their bastard sons), the association here seems more than apt.

Actually, Balfour did rather well in the job, confounding his critics and earning the bitter nickname Bloody Balfour from the Irish, which must have quietened the accusations of undue favouritism more than a little (he also rose to be Prime Minister from 1902–5). There is another big problem: the phrase isn’t recorded until 1937, in Eric Partridge’s Dictionary of Slang and Unconventional English. Mr Partridge suggested it had been in use since the 1890s, but nobody has found an example in print. This is surprising. If public indignation or cynicism against Lord Salisbury’s actions had been great enough to provoke creation of the saying, why didn’t it appear—to take a case—in a satirical magazine of the time such as Punch?

A rather more probable, but less exciting, theory has it that it derives from the slang phrase all is bob, meaning that everything is safe, pleasant or satisfactory. This dates back to the seventeenth century or so (it’s in Captain Francis Grose’s Dictionary of the Vulgar Tongue of 1785). There have been several other slang expressions containing bob, some associated with thievery or gambling, and from the eighteenth century on it was also a common generic name for somebody you didn’t know. Any or all of these might have contributed to its genesis.

Mapping the Iraqi Election

http://www.style.org/iraqielection/

An interesting display of the election results.

Taken from one of my GIS e-magazines:

Mapping the Iraqi Election and Morecompiled by Nora Parker, Managing Editor

Don Cooke of Tele Atlas alerted us to an interesting website, published by Jonathan Corum of 13pt. Not only does it have some interesting maps (like the January 2005 Iraqi election one shown below), but other fun goodies such as a "composite panorama of Mars" and "The Strouhal Number in Cruising Flight" which has to do with the fact that animals swimming or flying at cruising speed use "similar ratios of stroke frequency and amplitude to forward speed." The Iraqi maps break down the vote in each of 18 governates by eight political parties. The map below shows the total valid votes by governate.

Out-of-country votes are indicated by the red dot to the southwest, outside the country boundary. The maps are interactive and allow you to choose various display parameters.

15 bad things...

From one of my GIS magazines, and interesting summary of 15 bad things...

Our nation faces numerous threats. Many citizens have come to expect the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to protect us. But from what? Not all these threats carry guns, wear uniforms or build bombs. Earlier this year, the New York Times reported that DHS had created 15 detailed scenarios (listed below) that represent real and critical security threats. Few people realized that only a few months later, one would have occurred (major hurricane) and indications suggest a second one is on the way to becoming a reality.

DHS Scenarios

• 1.) Nuclear detonation: 10 kiloton nuclear device*
  2.) Biological attack: aerosolized anthrax*
  3.) Biological disease outbreak: flu pandemic
  4.) Biological attack: pneumonic plague
  5.) Chemical attack: blistering agent
  6.) Chemical attack: Toxic industrial chemicals*
  7.) Chemical attack: nerve agent
  8.) Chemical attack: chlorine tank explosion*
  9.) Natural disaster: earthquake
  10.) Natural disaster: major hurricane
  11.) Radiological attack: dirty bomb*
  12.) Explosives attack: improvised bombs*
  13.) Biological attack: food contamination**
  14.) Biological attack: foot and mouth disease
  15.) Cyber attack*

A "Dam" Funny Email

-----This is an actual (?) letter sent to a man named Ryan DeVries by the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality, State of Michigan. This guy's response is hilarious, but read the State's letter before you get to the response letter. (This is the State's Letter!) (?)

SUBJECT: DEQ File No.97-59-0023; T11N; R10W, Sec. 20; Montcalm County


Dear Mr. DeVries:

It has come to the attention of the Department of Environmental Quality that there has been recent unauthorized activity on the above referenced parcel of property. You have been certified as the legal landowner and/or contractor who did the following unauthorized activity:

Construction and maintenance of two wood debris dams across the outlet stream of Spring Pond.

A permit must be issued prior to the start of this type of activity. A review of the department's files shows that no permits have been issued. Therefore, the Department has determined that this activity is in violation of Part 301, Inland Lakes and Streams, of the Natural Resource and Environmental Protection Act, Act 451 of the Public Acts of 1994, being sections 324.30101 to 324.30113 of the Michigan Compiled Laws, annotated.

The Department has been informed that one or both of the dams partially failed during a recent rain event, causing debris and flooding at downstream locations. We find that dams of this nature are inherently hazardous and cannot be permitted. The Department therefore orders you to cease and desist all activities at this location, and to restore the stream to a free-flow condition by removing all wood and brush forming the dams from the stream channel. All restoration work shall be completed no later than January 31, 2005.

Please notify this office when the restoration has been completed so that a follow-up site inspection may be scheduled by our staff. Failure to comply with this request or any further unauthorized activity on the site may result in this case being referred for elevated enforcement action. We anticipate and would appreciate your full cooperation in this matter.Please feel free to contact me at this office if you have any questions.

Sincerely,

David L. Price, District RepresentativeLand and Water Management Division

** Here is the actual response sent back by Mr. DeVries: **Re: DEQ File No. 97-59-0023; T11N; R10W, Sec. 20; Montcalm County.

Dear Mr. Price,

Your certified letter dated 12/17/02 has been handed to me to respond to. I am the legal landowner but not the Contractor at 2088 Dagget, Pierson, Michigan. A couple of beavers are in the process of constructing and maintaining two wood "debris" dams across the outlet stream of my Spring Pond.

While I did not pay for, authorize, nor supervise their dam project, I think they would be highly offended that you call their skillful use of natures building materials "debris." I would like to challenge your department to attempt to emulate their dam project any time and/or any place you choose.

I believe I can safely state there is no way you could ever match their dam skills, their dam resourcefulness, their dam ingenuity, their dam persistence, their dam determination and/or their dam work ethic.

As to your request, I do not think the beavers are aware that they must first fill out a dam permit prior to the start of this type of dam activity.

My first dam question to you is: (1) Are you trying to discriminate against my Spring Pond Beavers, or (2) do you require all beavers throughout this state to conform to said dam request? If you are not discriminating against these particular beavers, through the Freedom of Information Act, I request completed copies of all those other applicable beaver dam permits that have been issued. Perhaps we will see if there really is a dam violation of Part 301, Inland Lakes and Streams, of the Natural Resource and Environmental Protection Act, Act 451 of the Public Acts of 1994, being sections 324.30101to 324.30113 of the Michigan Compiled Laws, annotated.

I have several concerns. My first concern is; aren't the beavers entitled to legal representation? The Spring Pond Beavers are financially destitute and are unable to pay for said representation -- so the State will have to provide them with a dam lawyer. The Department's dam concern that either one or both of the dams failed during a recent rain event, causing flooding, is proof that this is a natural occurrence, which the Department is required to protect. In other words, we should leave the Spring Pond Beavers alone rather than harassing them and calling their dam names.

If you want the stream "restored" to a dam free-flow condition please contact the beavers -- but if you are going to arrest them, they obviously did not pay any attention to your dam letter, they being unable to read English.

In my humble opinion, the Spring Pond Beavers have a right to build their unauthorized dams as long as the sky is blue, the grass is green and water flows downstream. They have more dam rights than I do to live and enjoy Spring Pond. If the Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection lives up to its name, it should protect the natural resources(Beavers) and the environment (Beavers' Dams).

So, as far as the beavers and I are concerned, this dam case can be referred for more elevated enforcement action right now. Why wait until 1/31/2005? The Spring Pond Beavers may be under the dam ice then and there will be no way for you or your dam staff to contact/harass them then.

In conclusion, I would like to bring to your attention to a real environmental quality (health) problem in the area. It is the bears! Bears are actually defecating in our woods. I definitely believe you should be persecuting the defecating bears and leave the beavers alone. If you are going to investigate the beaver dam, watch your step! (The bears are not careful where they dump!)Being unable to comply with your dam request, and being unable to contact you on your dam answering machine, I am sending this response to your dam office.

THANK YOU.

RYAN DEVRIES & THE DAM BEAVERS

What is GIS in 100 words or less?

These are the submissions orginally posted on GeoReport's GeoPoll at GeoPlace.com:


GIS allows two-way communication between a database and a map. It lets you "see" the data on a map, and allows you to ask questions about the data using the map.
- Dave FritzkeCity of Crystal, Minnesota

A software system that ties geographic data (maps) and non-geographic data together, allowing for map-based display of data relationships. Without the map component, it's called data mining.
- Kerry Maloney

Almost everything has a location. GIS is a way to store that information and see how things are related to each other, from pipelines underground to the streets to the trucks driving on top of them.
- Barry Waite

Nearly everything in the world exists in a physical space. From the chair you’re sitting in, to the way you drive home, to the boundary of your city, to the events you saw on the news last night. GIS allows us to store information about these locations and examine relationships with other location information to gain a better understanding of our world.
- David Brand

GIS is a tool that allows data and information to be displayed visually on a map.
- Richard Hoiland

GIS is a computer based means of precisely locating and identifying a specific location along with the ability to gather, use, and disseminate data about the location resulting in much better understanding and knowledge than otherwise would be possible.
- Marcus Wood

GIS is the practice of integrating data or information about a place on a map so that a user has the combination of features to fully describe that place in terms that they understand and use regularly in their job or personal activities.
- Gary W. KerrAllstate Insurance Company

GIS is when you know the location of something in, on or above the earth and putting that location into context with things around it at a known point in time. Data about that point and things surrounding it can be combined, compared and analyzed. This information may be viewed or heard in a medium best suited for the user to utilize that knowledge. The combined knowledge about the position of things is used for everything from guiding the end of a laser during eye surgery, intercepting an incoming missile to providing a map to your closest grocery store.
- Erv Rehman

An organized collection of computer technology, geographic data, and personnel designed to efficiently capture, store, update, manipulate, analyze, and display geographically referenced information.
- Hassan

A GIS is any data set that includes a geographical tag or attribute that enables that data to be analyzed and presented geographically to enhance the quality of decision making.
- Kevin Davies

GIS is a computer-based mapping of landscape features of a known geographic location that allows integration of the non-geographics characteristics of these features to describe the event over landscape at time.
- Meshack Nyabenge

GIS can be thought of as a type of computerized or digital mapping where the maps are spatially accurate and interactive in the sense that they may be used to perform spatial analysis or communicate information about a location in an easily customizable manner. For instance, data about multiple different phenomena are easily brought together to reveal new information from which conclusions may be drawn or decisions made, or the data may be reflected in a variety of different styles to communicate information about a location.
- Mike Espey

GIS is a representation, dissemination and integration of data or information by defining its attributes. When working with GIS, it involves data, various software’s and human resources. The GIS data can be in tabular, map etc. The following activities are involved to achieve a working GIS; these are data capture, input, conversion, database design and management. Any data can be represented using GIS. Our every day-to-day activities can be represented in a GIS.
- C. Disang

GIS is people applying technology to the acquisition and use of spatial information for some desired benefit.
- Paul J. DeFrancisco, Data Services Specialist, New York State Senate Research Service

Best Damn Haircut ... Ever!

Sometimes the simplest things in life, so often reduced to commonality by the daily mundane, defy the mediocre routine and rise up in rare moments of absolute excellence. Who expects excellence when you walk into a humble barbershop?

For all Bloggers in a 70 mile proximity of the Dominion Barber Shop in McLean, VA, stop by for a haircut ... You'll walk away cleanest, refreshed and impressed. Do I care how it looks? Not really... I'm a guy, I got a haircut and now my hair is short. What matters is how (and for how much) I got a haircut. In my 35 years of existence, I've never had a better cut experience. That's how good my last haircut was. I live in Florida, but I will now save my haircuts for when returning there to visit hometown family and friends.

First, this is not a hair salon, follicle spa or other such confusion (no Jonathan Product here ...), this is a no nonsense barber shop. You walk into a small shop tucked in a building complex in the heart of old McLean. The staff are polite, pleasant and professional, with the graceful understanding that men just need a barber. The conversation was limited to a zen-like brevity. "How do you want it cut?" "Short", I replied. Nothing more had to be said, and amazingly nothing was. No pretense of friendship, no "pretend your a regular" schmooze... Just sit down, we'll both shut up, and you'll get the best damn haircut of your life.

The female barber (barberette?) began with the buz cutters. OK, typical so far. Then she went for the shears, and began snipping away. This is where it usually ends with every other haircut. More buzzed than cut, you look in the mirror and say "thank you", really thinking "hell, I used to that to myself in college" and give the person twenty five bucks after tip. You pay the bill, and weakly wave while exiting, turning in motion to mutter some cliche goodbye like "See you next month" (not likely).

Now return to Dominion Barber Shop in McLean, VA, where a little bit of heaven can be found. My barber(ette) snipped a lot, then went back to the buzzers, then returned to hand snipping around my ears and neck. Now, I'm moderately impressed. Usually its the one-two treatment, and your oughta there. I even looked up, trying to determine was this an unusually thorough treatment, or did she just make a lot of mistakes. Nope, she really cares about the purity and perfection of a good cut. Still, nothing to this point is blog-worthy.

Then the improbable, followed by a rarity and closing with and act nearing the sanctity of ceremony occurred.

First, the barber applied a gel shaving foam to my back neck and sideburn edges. One of those cool, skin percolating shaving creams that were tre' chic in the '80s. Its got the "sshhhschk" sound coming out of the can, then the alovera smell and cool mint-tingling touch all in one package. Then, she shaves me not with a razor, or the latest Gillette Ultra-Rip Off, but a real folding barber blade. I flash to all those old west barber shop scenes and the one scene where an Al Capone-Robert Dinero gets nicked. No worries here, just a smooth shave.

I am now openly smiling, trying to sit up straight and hold back a "...Wow... Cool..." even.

O.K. Now the rarely seen in these western lands.... A neck and shoulder massage. She pulls out some hand glove device, fashioned out of metal and rubber. It looks like a bizarre cat hair glove gone S&M, but she hits me with it so fast I can't even think "what the hell is that thing, lady", before she kneading it into my neck and shoulder. It's vibrating on my neck, she's driving it into knots I've had so long I thought I was supposed to hang my shirts on them. Before I can regain my silent composure, I actually utter "....Wow... Cool". This isn't only cool, its manly even.

Finally, the ritual of sanctity. After doing the usual "remove the gown and brush down" post-hair cut routine, the barber takes a hot scented towellete and wipes my face and neck down. She didn't even ask. Its like "in your face" refreshed.

We approach the counter in silence; me still grinning foolishly and rubbing the back of my now slick neck, like some cowboy getting up in recovery after his first bull ride.

She punches the cash register, smiles, and says ""$15, please. There's a free coke or water around the corner." Price? $15? And you get a free soda to go? I gave here a $5 tip, and still feel the wisely miser.

Let's recap:
1.) Man needs haircut, because wife says so, and because she hates when man does it himself.

2.) Therefore, man hates haircuts, because haircutteries' today do exactly what man do, but cost money, and because wife somehow thinks this is better solution.

3.) Man finds small, simple, clean BARBER shop. (No fu fu)

4.) Barber is barberette who does not talk.

5.) Conversation in detail
- "How do you want it cut?"
- "Short"
- "...Wow... Cool..." (only thought)
- "...Wow... Cool..." Actually said.
-"$15, please. There's a free coke or water around the corner."

6.) BEST DAMN HAIRCUT EVER.

Dominion Barber Shop

6665A Old Dominion Drive

McLean, VA 22101

703.917.9025

Mon-Fri : 9am - 7pm

Sat : 8am - 6pm

Sunday 11am - 5pm

What Not To Do With Maps ....

This was recently posted with Crain's. Hardly the Thomas Crown Affair, but an interesting story.

http://chicagobusiness.com/cgi-bin/news.pl?id=17381

Map dealer suspected in Newberry Library thefts
Accused appears in court Tuesday charged with other thefts in Boston and London
(AP) — A renowned map dealer accused of stealing centuries-old artifacts from Yale University is scheduled to be in court Tuesday in a case that investigators hope will lead them to several antique maps that recently disappeared from other libraries.

In the eight weeks since Edward Forbes Smiley III was arrested at Yale with a razor blade and a cache of maps worth nearly $900,000, libraries in Chicago, Boston and London have reported finding gaps in their collections.

"We know that Smiley looked at four books, so we have taken those four books, we've turned every page and we think he may have taken two maps," said Charles T. Cullen, president of the Newberry Library in Chicago.

Smiley, 49 was arrested on larceny charges June 8 after a librarian at Yale's Beinecke Rare Book and Manuscript Library found a razor blade on the floor. Police confronted Smiley, who had been reviewing rare books, and asked whether the blade was his.

"Yes it is," he nervously replied, according to a police report. "I must have dropped it. I have a cold."

Officers searched Smiley's briefcase and pockets, and recovered three maps stolen from Yale and four maps that investigators are trying to trace. Smiley told investigators the maps were his and he wanted to compare their quality to those in Yale's collection.

Smiley declined to comment Monday when reached at his office on Cape Cod. His attorney said Smiley will plead not guilty Tuesday.

The arrest touched off an FBI investigation and prompted a review of rare map collections worldwide. Rare maps frequently are contained in old books or folios, making it easy for thieves to remove them without the library noticing they are missing.

The British Library in London recently discovered that two world maps from the 1500s and a map of New England from 1624 were missing. Newberry librarians said a 1673 map of Virginia and a map of South Carolina from the 1700s were missing from books Smiley had reviewed.

The Boston Public library also discovered maps missing from books Smiley had studied. The New York Public Library is still reviewing the many books Smiley used there. Ronald E. Grim, map curator at the Boston Public Library, said Smiley was always friendly with librarians.

"He had a good way of making friends," he said. "He had a good rapport."

But in the small community of antique map dealers, Smiley had a mixed reputation.

"Forbes was turning up things that aren't possible to turn up, and at a third or fourth of the wholesale price," said Pennsylvania map dealer W. Graham Rader, who said he told federal agents that he's been warning collectors about Smiley for years. "Things were too good to be true."
Tony Campbell, former head of the map collection at the British Library, said collectors complained that Smiley had an exclusive air about him.

"Their comments were always critical," Campbell said. "But I don't think anyone thought - I think we were all surprised by this."

Though Smiley reviewed many of the books that librarians have since realize are missing maps, the FBI has so far been unable to link him to the thefts, librarians said.

At the Newberry, Cullen said curators know the maps were in the books when they were catalogued, that Forbes was the last person to view the books and that the maps are now missing. But they don't know whether they were in the books when Forbes reviewed them, he said.

"Obviously, I think that Smiley took it, but I couldn't go into court and say that," Cullen said.

The Boston Public Library is having the same problem.

"Proving that those items were there when he looked at the book is almost impossible," Grim said.
Frank Turner, director of the Beinecke Library, said curators and librarians are constantly working to protect their archives without burdening scholars who need access to the materials.

"We're all now reviewing those procedures," Turner said.

The 11th Commandment

Eleventh Commandment (Walter Lowdermilk) In 1939 this appeared in a Bulletin of the US Department of Agriculture:

"Thou shalt inherit the Holy Earth as a faithful steward, conserving its resources and productivity from generation to generation.Thou shalt safeguard thy fields from soil erosion, thy living waters from drying up, thy forests from desolation, and protect thy hills from overgrazing by thy herds, that thy descendents may have abundance forever."

"If any shall fail in this stewardship of the land, thy fruitful fields shall become sterile stony ground and wasting gullies, and thy descendents shall decrease and live in poverty or perish from off the face of the earth."

• quoted on page 58 of Lester Brown, Plan B, from Walter C. Lowdermilk, Conquest of the Land through 7,000 years, USDA bulletin No. 99 (Washington, D.C., U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service, 1939. note 1 page 24.

On Investing and the 2005 Economy - Thoughts by Rolf Clark

On Investing and the 2005 Economy

Study of various analyses on the American and global economy lead one to think that a near term global recession is likely. This implies investors should be out of the stock and bond markets for the next year or two, putting funds into either a money market or very short term treasuries. Some funds (perhaps 20 percent) might go into gold equities to capitalize on an expected near term fall in the dollar. After the global recession bottoms out, investors should not reinvest in US equities but rather buy Asian equities (excluding Japan), for that region seems to be where real future growth will occur.

The relevant factors: (1) The US has accumulated severe private debt as well as moderate government debt; (2) as a result the dollar is vulnerable on the international exchange; (3) that’s because the collective private and public deficits have led to impressive foreign holdings of US financial assets, making the dollar vulnerable if foreign investors abandon it; (4) for years business has invested in high tech industries and not in the manufacturing industries that hire average workers (thus there are inadequate jobs for the large blue collar work force); (5) foreign labor is both cheap and now highly skilled, so even US high tech jobs are at risk; (6) the “baby boom” demographics of aging will be detrimental to future US growth.

A major consideration behind these comments concerns risk avoidance. Specifically, avoiding a major loss at the risk of foregoing a marginal gain is intelligent risk aversion tactic (discussed further below).

Rational
Americans have collectively borrowed from overseas sources to make up for the government deficits and inadequate private savings of recent years. In 1982 Americans saved about 11 percent of their income. Since then that savings rate has gradually fallen to under 3 percent now. Private sector debt has risen from 95 percent of GDP in 1970 to 240 percent in 2004. In the same period the government debt has changed from 38 percent to 62 percent of GDP.

In short, the nation is saving a lot less than it used to. The US has been consuming, instead of saving for productive investment. Consumers have borrowed on the equity of their homes to maintain spending levels and thereby made GDP gains possible.

When national savings fall short of national expenditures, we borrow the difference from overseas. And overseas investors have the dollars to loan us because we run trade deficits – we import more than we export. That means dollars accumulate overseas (especially in major US purchasing areas: Japan, China, and Europe). What happens to these overseas held dollars? Some are loaned back to the US to cover deficits. Some are used to buy US assets. And some are held in reserve by foreign banks.

If these foreign held dollar reserves are sold on the currency markets (due to concern over the dollar resulting from large US debts and lowered productivity) then the dollar will indeed fall. And a falling dollar leads to further dollar sales. Then US assets (stocks and bonds) lose value and holding them becomes costly. Thus the argument to get rid of them now.
Also, if the dollar falls, interest rates will need to rise in order to slow the dollar’s fall and still obtain new loans from overseas. After all, the nation’s deficit spending still needs to be covered.

The higher interest rates will make the large cumulative debts – especially those in housing - dangerous. As housing prices have risen, investors have borrowed to speculate on new housing. Further, home buyers have used the increased value of their houses as collateral to borrow funds to consume more, and to speculate further on housing and other real estate investments (eg, Florida condos).

The loans will remain fixed while the speculative “housing bubble” bursts, home values fall, and mortgage payments rise as variable interest rates rise (a large fraction of recent purchases were made with imaginative financing meant to reduce up front payments). Speculators will not be able to make the now higher payments. New loans to pay existing payments will demand even higher rates. As housing prices fall, speculators who had counted on paying off loans by selling their houses before the mortgage payments came due will find they cannot pay them nor afford to refinance them. Meanwhile housing prices fall further yet.

Additionally, US stocks are currently quite highly valued. The S&P 500 index has stocks selling at over 40 times earnings, a very high figure historically. Thus, stocks are likely to fall anyway, but when viewed in the light of a housing bubble, may well collapse as investors sell them to cover their housing mortgages.

A severe recession or depression can result from the combined fall in the dollar, a stock market decline, and the housing bubble bust. And when the US has a major recession the world suffers … for we import much from other economies. Thus a global recession.

Since this global recession may happen in the near future, it seems a good time to be highly liquid. That will leave cash ready to invest in the next global growth phase after the anticipated recession.

Where to invest when growth returns
The US is no longer the area of most potential future growth. It no longer leads in manufacturing. Instead it has overspent in high tech industries that hire few average skill workers. With modern communications, even high tech jobs are outsourced to lower wage countries such as India and Ireland.

Further, the US population is aging. That means more US funds will be spent on Social Security and Medicare instead of on investment in productivity enhancing production.

Some baby boomers have already begun retiring, and retired people spend less, especially if they have saved little. That upcoming drop in consumption will further reduce US growth. Japan’s and Europe’s population are aging even sooner than the US’s, making them undesirable investment alternatives.

It is noteworthy that Japan’s falling stock market era started in 1990 and has now lasted for 15 years. Japan was the apple of the investors eye before 1990. The point is that great economies can suffer for long periods. Further, the US baby boom lags Japan by 10 years, so baby boom dynamics would dictate that the US financial problems became suspect starting in 2000. That indeed is when the US stock market fell heavily, and it has not recovered nor might it for the next ten years if we accept Japan for our model.

The next phase of economic growth will likely occur in East Asia and India. Once the global recession passes East Asia seems to be the area to invest in. They are poised for manufacturing growth such as occurred in the USA, Germany, and Japan in the past. China’s growth is certainly well known.

There is an exception to remaining out of stocks totally. If the dollar is to fall, then putting some funds into gold would be appropriate as gold usually rises if the dollar falls. This can be done by obtaining a gold “exchange traded fund” (or ETF). One such ETF has the market symbol “IAU”, which is traded just like a corporate stock.

Recent history of the stock market
There are empirical stock market dynamics since 1929 relevant to our discussion of a bearish future for the US market. Specifically, the market was bearish from 1929 to 1946 (17 years). It was bullish from 1946 to 1965 (19 years), bearish from 1965 to 1982 (17 years), bullish from 1982 to 2000 (18 years). It would be consistent with this pattern for US stocks to be bearish for 17(?) years from 2000 on. That would reinforce the argument to avoid US equities which have only been bearish for 5 years since 2000.

Implications:
Put most funds into money markets or short term treasury notes until the predicted global recession passes, then invest to take advantage of East Asian growth for a decade or so. If desired, invest in gold for the near term to take advantage of the falling dollar.

When the time comes, there are ETF’s for Asian investments. And with the strong growth in China and India, investment in commodities (energy, food, raw materials) would then be appropriate. But such investment decisions do not need to be made until the global recession eases.

Risk Aversion
The above recommendations are bolstered by a risk-adverse logic. Suppose the US economy does not experience a near term recession. Applying the above recommendations then would mean one forgoes possible gains in the US stock market. One might forgo, say, a 15 percent gain when getting out of stocks for an expected recession that does not happen. 15 percent is not a major sacrifice. But, on the other hand, if one stays with stocks while a major recession occurs, a loss of 50 percent (or more) of a portfolio’s value could occur before counteraction can be taken. That would be a major setback for most people.

Suppose, to make the point, that even a 100 percent gain was foregone by putting the funds in a money market to counter the potential 50 percent loss. For many of us a loss of 50 percent of our portfolio is not acceptable, even if what is given up is a 50-50 chance of a doubling of the funds. Depending on our situation, a doubling of funds is not as beneficial as halving them is detrimental. A retiree, for example may not be able to withstand a halving of assets, no matter how large the potential gain foregone.

So for many of us, the housing bubble, the deficits, the migration of jobs to Asia, are real enough indicators of a recession to argue for the safer road of accepting money market returns for the next year or two…maintaining the flexibility to jump in with both feet once the recession, or its threat, has passed.

Rolf Clark
July 2005

Iraq War Fatalities Animated Map

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Iraq War Fatalities Animated Map

Iraq War Fatalities
First reported by Nora Parker, Senior Managing Editor, DirectionsMag.com

Graphic designer Tim Klimowitz created this animated map (you'll first see a red button, and then the animation begins) of Iraq showing US and coalition military fatalities per day during the war. Klimowitz says that he was trying to create "something as objective and apolitical" as possible. My nine year old daughter happened to wander into my office while I was looking at the site, and based on her reaction, it was quickly apparent that the map communicates information in a way that could be quickly grasped by almost any audience. According to Klimowitz's description on the site:

"The animation runs at ten frames per second -- one frame for each day -- and a single black dot indicates the geographic location that a coalition military fatality occurred. Each dot starts as a white flash and a large red dot which fades to black over the span of 30 frames/days, and then slowly fades to gray over the span of the entire war."Accompanying the visual representation is a soft 'tic' sound for each fatality, the volume of which increases relative to the number of fatalities that occurred simultaneously that day. More deaths in a smaller area produce visually deeper reds and audibly more pronounced 'tics.'"

London Bombings - Comments from Map List Posting

This was taken from a MapInfo-L list I found relevant.

"It was aimed at ordinary, working-class Londoners, black and white, Muslim and Christian, Hindu and Jew, young and old. It was an indiscriminate attempt to slaughter, irrespective of any considerations for age, for class, for religion, or whatever.

That isn't an ideology, it isn't even a perverted faith - it is just an indiscriminate attempt at mass murder and we know what the objective is.

They seek to divide Londoners. They seek to turn Londoners against each other."

I will admit to being very scared yesterday, when the mobile phone networks went down and I couldn't get hold of any of my friends or family. Or when they started to clear the building I work in because they thought there was a car bomb in the car park next door. But I refuse to let it ruin my life or to let it change the way I view people.

If we give into fear and racism - looking at people differently because of the colour of their skin or who they are then the f****** will have won.

Don't give them that victory.

What Is GIS: A Profession, Niche, or Tool?

What Is GIS: A Profession, Niche, or Tool?

GITA White Paper - Prepared June 2005
What is GIS? Is it a profession unto itself? Is it simply a niche technology inside the broader discipline of information technology (IT)? Or is it a tool that cuts across numerous professional and technological boundaries?

This debate raged over a period of weeks on GITA’s GEOXchange list server, where members routinely exchange information and discuss topics relevant to the geospatial industry. Thisparticular thread touched off such a firestorm that the association developed a panel discussion on the topic at GITA’s Annual Conference in Denver in March 2005.

Vince Rosales, vice president of Idea Integration in Denver, moderated the panel of four industry representatives who spoke before a packed meeting room. Rosales alternated between comments from the panel and the audience. While no definitive answer to the debate was reached—as was the case on GEOXchange—it became clear that this discussion was far more than an exercise in extemporaneous speaking. The geospatial industry is passionate about this topic as both a matter of professional pride and a concern over where the industry is heading.

Specifically, many involved in the debate see an accurate definition of GIS as critically important to the future because it relates directly to the issue of professional certification and licensing, which has been causing equally stirring discussion within the industry in recent years.

The Great Debate
If a conclusion has to be drawn from the discussions at Annual Conference 28 and on GEOXchange, it is that there is no consensus regarding the basic question. Rosales summed it up as follows: “The argument over whether GIS is a profession, niche or tool will continue because it is all of those things … it simply depends on your perspective.”

He noted that strong arguments were made for each of the positions, and interestingly, most participants in the discussion argued from two or more perspectives. Few felt GIS could be pigeonholed into a single definition. Two of the most prevalent comments, for example, were that GIS could easily be considered a profession or tool depending on the context.

Since there are individuals who are trained and employed specifically in the capacity of performing GIS work, it must be considered a profession. Likewise, how can GIS not be considered a tool in some circumstances when there are geologists, urban planners, and environmental scientists—with no particular training in GIS—using geospatial functionality in the course of their daily work?

One GITA member summarized this point succinctly on GEOXchange: “GIS software is, in and of itself, a tool. The ability to utilize, extend and improve the software, as well as the ability to infuse the system with intelligence, to guide decision-making processes, for a variety of disciplines, is the central task of the GIS professional.”

Speaking at the panel discussion, Peter Batty, CTO of Ten Sails, Greenwood Village, Colo., cautioned against trying to define a GIS professional because the technology is so diverse. In order to get anything remotely meaningful, a number of different specific roles and skill sets need to be defined. The alternative is ending up with a definition that is too broad to be useful, which is what has happened with existing certification programs, he said.

Ian Fitzgerald, GIS coordinator at Truckee-Donner PUD in Truckee, Calif., and a panelist at the discussion, took the debate a step further by clarifying precisely what a GIS professional is: “A GIS professional is a person who maintains the geospatial data and the interface through which the data is converted to information. The professional, therefore, must have a cartographic background, understand database administration, and be an application developer. Someone who uses GIS is not necessarily a GIS professional.”

Glenn Letham, co-founder and managing editor of GISuser.com, based in Frederick, Md., said he could agree with these positions, but that he ultimately came down in the ‘GIS is a tool’ camp: “I feel that it is best described as a tool. GIS, geospatial technologies, and related disciplines are now commonly found as the driving force or backbone of many applications and Web services. GIS has evolved as a tool used and/or required by a variety of users and is now an indispensable component of any information technology professional’s toolbox.”

Many preferred to avoid the terms profession and tool and settled on calling GIS a discipline. One GEOXchange member wrote: “GIS is an ever-expansive far-reaching discipline. There is a difference between GIS software and GIS. In most cases when people refer to a GIS, they are referring to an integration of a variety of software from a variety of disciplines. [GIS] has an academic, intellectual, and theoretical background based on geographical theory and computer science. GIS is a dynamic system of relationships between a vast array of disciplines.”

Another voiced a comment with a theme that ran through many discussion threads: “Indeed, the products are tools, however, GIS is no less a discipline than surveying, computer science (IT), accounting, engineering or marketing. It is a bit different, however, as GIS is a blend of many existing disciplines, including math, history, engineering, geometry and computer science … it will quickly develop as a discipline, much like computer science did in the 1970s and 1980s.”

While the majority of discussion participants fell into the “profession” or “tool” categories, a few vocal members voiced opinions that GIS is merely a niche within IT. The arguments varied, but most cultivated the theme that IT is really the enterprise-wide technology enveloping GIS applications and data. As politely as possible, the pro-IT debaters seemed to make the point that GIS couldn’t survive without IT to prop it up:
“GIS projects are most successful when the existing IT establishment is involved, interested, and consulted on all the usual general issues. Going it alone always brings failure and relegation of GIS to the ghetto of ‘solutions in search of a problem,’” wrote a member of the GEOXchange forum.

Another stated, “After 25 years, it is time to realize that the problem is not that the IT profession needs to understand the real power of GIS. Rather, the geospatial community needs to understand that there are strategic information technology issues that dwarf the relevance of GIS, even in what we think of as intrinsically spatial industries such as local government and utilities.”

Many see the niche argument as pertaining to where GIS technology currently resides in terms of its evolution. Letham noted that some users are further along this evolutionary path than others, which may account for the level of disagreement on the topic, but he saw value in this position as well:
“GIS has matured tremendously over the past five years with new uses and new data resources coming to light almost daily. I can understand how many look at GIS as a profession as well as a software tool; however, to realize and experience GIS to its full potential, [GIS] must be managed and nurtured as an integrated part of a corporate information system. To do so effectively, a coordinated effort must exist and it must be managed effectively within the overall IT plan,” he said.

Letham added that getting a consensus on the position that GIS holds in IT will be as challenging as agreeing on what the acronym “GIS” stand for.

Addressing Certification
During the GEOXchange discussion, Fitzgerald stated, “Going around and stating that my discipline is better than yours serves no purpose in attainment of the final goal.” Fitzgerald echoed the sentiment of many discussion participants who felt this debate served a higher purpose—drafting a blueprint to guide the future development of GIS. Panelists and audience members at GITA’s Annual Conference repeatedly linked the debate to the subject of professional certification, for which some expressed approval and others did not.

Among those in favor of GIS certification was at least one individual who said he had received his certificate, and pointed out that certification had served its purpose by helping him land a job. But others, such as panelist Perry Harts, information services manager for the City of Frisco, Texas, felt that certification in its current form performs a disservice to the industry, perhaps relegating it to a niche, because it doesn’t go far enough toward mandating educational standards:
“GIS is a profession requiring a broad education and experience. This is in contrast to a vocation or niche requiring specific task training for a small set of skills. The education and training of GIS professionals should focus on future needs,” Harts said. “Since GIS is constantly changing, it requires professional skills and training. GIS students should be prepared with problem-solving and analytical skills that will enable them to exploit the next generations of technology.’

Although no general agreement was reached regarding the value of professional certification and licensing, panelists and audience members shared the belief that some mechanism needs to be enacted by the GIS industry to ensure that people who work in the geospatial disciplines have received broad education and training, can perform a variety of skills, and are competent at what they do.

Conclusion: Competency is the Key
GITA is committed to encouraging the “what is GIS?” debate to continue the healthy discourse that will assist in shaping the geospatial industry and its component parts well into the future. The association believes this discussion must be moved forward as it pertains to certification and licensing. Regardless of the terminology—certification or licensing—used to label someone as qualified to practice in a geospatial discipline, GITA supports and actively promotes the notion that this industry must come together to make certain that competent, well-trained people enter the geospatial workforce now and in the future. GITA also strongly supports any efforts that can be made at the academic level to ensure that recent graduates with GIS degrees are prepared to make an immediate and positive impact to the benefit of their new employers as soon as they leave school. After all, competency is the ultimate workforce attribute.

Ed Iacobucci stands in front of an Eclipse Aviation Eclipse 500 microjet

Posted by Hello

Fleet
Posted by Hello

Company launch and company party photos
Posted by Hello

www.DayJet.com

DayJet Corporation to Provide Nation’s First Per-Seat, On-Demand Jet Service

Breakthrough Technology and Approach to Enable Affordable
On-Demand Jet Service – You Pay Only for the Seat You Use;
Service Will Restore Day Trips in Small Regional Markets

DELRAY BEACH, FL – April 25, 2005 – DayJet™ Corporation today outlined plans to operate the nation’s first “Per-Seat, On-Demand” jet service to transform the regional business travel experience. DayJet will be first to combine a new-generation of very light jet (VLJ) aircraft with
its own real-time operations system to make what was once an elite mode of transportation (on-demand jet travel) broadly affordable and available on a “per-seat” basis, uniquely tailored to each passenger’s individual schedule and priced only slightly higher than full- fare coach airfares.
DayJet president and CEO Edward Iacobucci, a prominent high-tech entrepreneur, today announced initial details behind the company’s service, enabling technology, and purchase agreement for Eclipse 500 aircraft in a joint webcast with Vern Raburn, president and CEO of
Eclipse Aviation Corporation. In a separate announcement, DayJet today also unveiled its management team, board of directors and funding.
DayJet’s “Per-Seat, On-Demand” jet service will make the conve nience of corporate jet travel broadly available and affordable for more people and organizations, turning wasted travel time into valuable business and personal time. “Per-Seat” means you only pay for the seat(s) you
reserve, not the whole aircraft. “On-Demand” means you fly where and when it is convenient for you.

“We are at the threshold of a new era in aviation that will redefine regional transportation. Innovations in small jet aircraft combined with advances in computing technologies will enable a personalized air transportation network that promises to end the dilemma of 400- mile drives with
overnight stays or hub changes and layovers,” stated Iacobucci. “To make this promise a reality, DayJet has brought together the aircraft fleet, aviation expertise, computational skills and entrepreneurial drive that will deliver the world’s first ‘Per-Seat, On-Demand’ jet service. Starting next year, we plan to give business travelers the experience of truly efficient regional travel where business is conducted in a day, productivity is increased and personal time restored.”

Order for Eclipse Jets
DayJet Corporation also announced today that in July 2002, it signed a long-term agreement with Eclipse Aviation, the leading manufacturer of a new generation of VLJ aircraft, for the purchase of Eclipse 500 jets. The first 24 months of the five- year agreement includes firm orders for 239
Eclipse 500 aircraft and options to purchase 70 additional aircraft. Deliveries will begin shortly after the Eclipse 500 receives FAA certification, which is on track to occur in March 2006.

“The ‘Per-Seat, On-Demand’ opportunity is significant, and DayJet’s strategy to leverage technology to create a scalable, on-demand transportation service positions the company to be a leader in this dynamic market,” said Raburn. “Ed’s deep background in both technology and
aviation gives him a compelling advantage – the vision to imagine a new future for regional air transportation, and the real- life operations, logistics and service expertise required to make it happen. We are very excited to supply the fleet of next-generation aircraft that will enable DayJet to transform the regional business air travel experience.”

Service to Operate Under Existing FAA Regulations
DayJet Corporation has been working closely with the FAA and other government authorities to ensure its “Per-Seat, On-Demand” services will comply with all applicable regulations and safety standards, and operate within the national airspace infrastructure. DayJet will operate and maintain its own fleet of Eclipse 500 aircraft in accordance with existing FAA Part 135 on-demand regulations, subject to receipt of the necessary government operating authority.

Each seat aboard DayJet’s aircraft will be individually negotiated and customized to the needs of each and every customer. The customer will select the origin and destination airports, the time they want to “depart no earlier than,” and the time they want to “arrive no later than” at their
destination. DayJet will not publish schedules for its service, nor will it operate on a schedule other than the customer’s.

A Transformative Market Opportunity
DayJet Corporation is built from the ground up to offer scalable, on-demand transportation services to hard-to-reach regional markets that have limited, if any, scheduled airline service today. By offering its services on a “Per-Seat,” shared-ride basis at prices that are only slightly higher than full- fare coach, DayJet will make on-demand air transportation a practical and affordable option for those road warriors who need the productivity gains the most: field sales forces, operations managers, business development managers, and other mid- level managers
whose productivity drives the top- line performance of their organizations.
“A new ‘Per-Seat, On-Demand’ model would enable business travelers to more easily reach manufacturing plants, suppliers or partners in obscure locations that are difficult to reach using traditional airlines,” said Harvard Business School Professor Clayton Christensen, who explored the topic in his book Seeing What’s Next. “Introducing an innovation such as this – one that would build to demand – must come from a CEO who has used emergent strategy processes to create a new- market disruption in another service business. It will require an outside perspective to enact this type of disruptive innovation in the aviation industry.”

Satisfies Pent-up Demand of Business Travelers
Eighty-four percent of the 405 million annual U.S. business trips taken during 2004 were regional, and 80 percent of these were by car. The number of people driving 200 to 400 miles for business has increased 25 percent during the past three years (DOT, 2004). As part of its extensive research and development efforts, DayJet Corporation has interviewed
hundreds of business travelers and corporate managers across 20 focus groups in nine states to gain a first- hand understanding of regional business travel frustrations and priorities. This research reveals a strong, latent demand for convenient “Per-Seat, On-Demand” jet services.

Typical of the focus group responses is this comment from William Downey, advertising director for a regional publishing company:
“DayJet on-demand jet service holds strong appeal for its ability to turn wasted travel time into valuable business and personal time. To me, the value of time is defined as: can I drop my son off at school in the morning, get to the airport, make my trip, and be back in the evening to see his basketball game? DayJet will allow me to use my time more efficiently, so I can meet all my travel demands yet still be at home in the evening. I hope to benefit from DayJet both professionally and personally, and I’m looking forward to giving it a try once it’s in my market.”

Enabled Through New Field of Real-Time Technology
For the past three years, DayJet Corporation has been engaged in pioneering research in a new field of logistics to real-time optimization. During the same period, the company has been implementing these logistics breakthroughs in an operational infrastructure necessary to run a
large-scale “Per-Seat, On-Demand” jet service. When coupled with the reduced acquisition and operating costs of new VLJ aircraft, DayJet will
achieve the breakthrough value proposition that is necessary to address the needs of the regional business traveler. The company believes that the VLJ price points in conjunction with the “traditional” air taxi model alone are not sufficient to drive down the cost of on-demand jet travel enough to enable significant market expansion. Today, less than five percent of U.S. travelers reap the benefits of on-demand air transportation through corporate jets, fractional ownership programs, hourly membership cards or traditional air charter/air taxi services.

“The key to making the ‘Per-Seat, On-Demand’ model work is leveraging advanced optimization technology to match the ever-changing supply and demand in real- time. Ironically, it’s like flying itself: Millions of tiny adjustments over time keep the whole system on track,” said Esther Dyson, founder of Flight School and editor of Release 1.0 for CNET Networks. “What’s exciting is being able to offer on-demand jet service in the ‘long tails’ of the market between less-traveled city pairs where jet travel is currently unavailable or too expensive for ‘normal people.’ DayJet
brings one-to-one service to air travel just as the Internet has brought one-to-one applications to so many other markets.”

DayJet’s real-time operations system encompasses the necessary dispatching, integrated planning and optimization tools to make real-time, automated decisions on a large-scale basis. This proprietary infrastructure will allow DayJet to efficiently serve sparse demand in outlying “tails”
of the market, while driving its cost of services down, making on-demand jet travel broadly available and affordable on a “Per-Seat” basis for most business travelers.

DayJet’s real-time operations system has been tested for more than a year and will be ready for operation when the first aircraft roll off Eclipse’s production line.

Taking Flight in 2006
DayJet Corporation expects to launch service mid-year 2006 to select markets soon after it takes delivery of its first Eclipse 500 aircraft, and subject to receipt of the necessary government operating authority. The company plans to serve more than 35 markets with “Per-Seat, On- Demand” service by the end of its second year of operations.

About DayJet Corporation
Founded by prominent high-tech entrepreneur Ed Iacobucci, DayJet Corporation is the pioneer of a new type of regional travel: “Per-Seat, On-Demand” jet service tailored to the passenger’s individual schedule and priced only slightly higher than full- fare coach airfares. Headquartered
in Delray Beach, Florida, DayJet has developed this new industry’s first real-time operations system. Combined with the speed and efficiency of new-generation small jet aircraft, DayJet has created the next major advance in regional business travel. For more information visit
www.DayJet.com.

Here is an Economic Handbook avaialable for download.
The table of contents and the first chapter is included.
For further interest - email me at Taggart2@aol.com


Instant Economics
Memos to Clarify the Topic

© Rolf Clark

Introduction

These memos will help the reader understand economics. The typical reader would be an executive who is not a trained economist, but would like a better understanding of the subject.
Most important economic principles are covered, in minimum reading time. That is, each memo is brief. This saves the reader time without omitting important content. While not all economic topics are discussed, they have been filtered to provide an efficient and effective coverage.
Each memo is written to stand on its own. Reference to other memos is avoided. While this leads to some repetition, it is an advantage as it reviews some principles in different contexts, thereby reinforcing understanding. And, while there is a deliberate order to the memos, they need not be read in order.The intent is to provide economic concepts such as those discussed in newspapers or commented on by television’s “talking heads”. More important, the reader will be able to generate original thoughts on economic issues. Thought generation is a skill far beyond understanding what someone else is saying. That is why principles are stressed over facts. Principles are the building blocks of thought generation.

Contents
Introduction 5
Why we need economic insights—the early 2000's 7

Ways to measure the economy 9
A Market System 11
Supply and demand 13
The difference between savings and investment 15
Externalities 16
Government spending 17
Regulation and taxes 18
What is "The Debt" 19
Government debt and private debt 20

Gross Domestic Product 21
Constant versus current dollars 23
GDP, potential and actual 24
How to impact potential GDP 26
Ways to impact actual GDP: Fiscal and monetary policy 27
How banking works 29
The Fed 30
Monetary policy reinforces, fiscal policy counteracts 31
Trade surpluses and deficits 32
Comparative advantage 33
Increasing exports: Another way to raise GDP 35

Exchange rates 36
Unavoidable linkages: Trade deficits, government balances 38
Inflation, interest rates and exchange rates 41
Fixed exchange rates 43
A 1970s example -- The US abandons the Gold Standard 45

What is money? 47
Long- and short-term interest rates 49
More on interest rates 51
Price/earnings ratios and interest rates 53
Price/earnings and growth 54
Leverage 55
Inflation vs. changing inflation 56
Deflation can be nasty stuff 58
Factors that hurt a country’s finances 60
When banking is a problem 61
Currency crises due to speculation 62
Productivity loss and monetary devaluations 63
Investment and developing economies 64

Systems talk 65
Microeconomics and macroeconomics: Different topics 67
The “Tragedy of the Commons” 69
Don’t expect predictability 70
Oil dynamics 72
The investment food chain 73
Accelerators 75
Some dynamic examples 78
Moral hazard 80
The powerful market system 81

Principles of the market system 82
The time dimension 84
Principles involving returns 85
Productivity and the workings of the modern firm 87
Information Age products 89
Information Age firms vs. Industrial Age firms 91
Increasing returns 94
Finances in the New Economy 95
Elasticity, an important concept 96
Productivity 97
Transaction costs 98
Expected value and risk 99


Why we need economic insights—the early 2000's

The American economy in the early years of the 21st century showed how complex economics can be. In the 1990's the economy had been strong. There had been high employment, low inflation, a rising stock market, and strong national economic growth. When the (George W.) Bush administration took over in 2001, things seemed to go awry. The stock market fell severely, unemployment rose, and growth slowed severely. Inflation stayed low, low enough to almost cause deflation, a condition that can be very damaging.
This economic reversal had essentially nothing to do with the change in administration, but rather resulted from economic dynamics already in place. The rise in stock values during the latter half of the 1990's had been excessive. People felt relatively rich, so they bought extravagantly and saved little. They did not need to save, for the values of their real and financial assets had been rising rapidly with the housing and stock markets, and jobs were plentiful.
When the financial bubble burst in 2000 and 2001, net worth suddenly fell. Consequently spending was reduced, and that lead toward recession.
The Bush administration tried to restart the economy. In 2001 the government was still running a surplus, so a tax cut seemed a good idea. The tax cut would let workers spend more, helping gross domestic product grow. But a tax cut would also reduce the government surplus. Meanwhile spending for defense and home security after 9/11 increased, eroding the surplus. Soon there were government deficits instead of surpluses. Deficits lead to a larger federal debt and therefore to higher interest payments. The higher interest payments lead to larger deficits. Thus lower taxes do not seem a foolproof solution to a recession.
If tax cuts aren’t the answer perhaps lower interest rates are. Lower interest rates encourage businesses to invest in new plant and equipment, leading to more jobs and a boost to the economy. But in the early 2000's interest rates were already low. They were low because the economy was weak and when the economy is weak corporations do not borrow money to increase capacity. Thus even lower interest rates did not raise business investment. Monetary policy (the Fed lowering interest rates) seemed no more effective in helping the economy than did tax policy.
Even if business investment stayed low surely consumers would buy things if interest rates were low enough. In the early 2000's consumers did indeed buy. They bought lots of cars at zero interest rates. But that added to consumer debt, for even at zero interest there is still a new loan when buying a $25,000 car. That is, private debt increased. Furthermore a glut of sudden buying could lower demand (for cars say) two or three years later.
Similarly, housing purchases increased when interest rates fell, as monthly payments became lower. But house buying again means more private debt. Just about the time the federal surplus was turning to a deficit, private household savings also turned negative. Private savings had averaged about plus 2 percent of GDP from 1960 to 1996, but were minus 6 percent by year 2000.[1] The government and the private sector were going into debt together. This larger national debt meant more would be spent paying interest costs, a significant part of which goes to foreign lenders. Foreigners spend less on US goods than Americans do and that means fewer US jobs.
Another dynamic occurred at the same time. Housing prices had risen steeply by the early 2000’s. Rising personal wealth and low interest costs had made housing seem affordable and prices were bid upward. In 2002 one major newspaper headlined, "When will the real estate market crash?"[2] The article stated that house prices had recently gone up by 40 percent. Meanwhile inflation was almost negligible. If the housing bubble were to burst the falling house prices might lead to deflation, a real concern during that period. Deflation leads to falling wages while debts remain fixed. People then feel less wealthy, and reduce spending. That hurts the economy.
Again, lowering the interest rates did not necessarily seem better policy than lowering taxes. Slight wonder the Bush administration was having trouble fixing the economy: The normal policy tools did not seem to work.
The government could certainly help the economy in the short term by spending more on government purchases, by increasing defense spending for example, or by building roads and bridges. Such expenditures create jobs. But they also lead to more deficits. The nation accumulates yet more debt. A nation in excessive debt has difficulty regenerating growth.
The message that should be taken from these dynamics is that “The Economy” is complex. Simple answers such as "reduce taxes to help the economy", or "lower interest rates to help the economy", or "increase government spending to fix the economy", are too simplistic. Almost any policy change has feedbacks that counteract the policy intention. A person discussing the economy needs to become aware of these feedback dynamics. The following memos are meant to generate such awareness for investors, executives, and interested consumers.
[1] For example, see The Economist, January 26th 2002, pages 22-24.
[2] San Francisco Examiner, July 5, 2002

About My Website

www.GeoSteppes.com

This is the website of a modern day Cartographer thrown into the business world.

Classically trained in GIS with a M.S. from George Mason University and a B.A. from Penn State University in Communications, over the course of my journeyman's career I have wandered through positions in government, news agencies, consulting corporations and rogue start ups.

The hard-earned working theory I have developed is simple. In life, communication is hard work. In business, effective communication is critical. GIS provides a structured path for the visual communication of complex business data and ideas through geo-spatial analysis and display.

Unfortunately, GIS is hard work too. It isn't easy turning millions of records in a database no one can use ... into a clear picture of your business everyone can understand, but its good work if you can get it.

Part art and part science, GIS is the visual display and analysis of spatial data. It applies to marketing, business intelligence, site selection, environmental impact studies, fleet routing, customer retention, sales territory alignments, demand modeling and just about anything you'd want to see on a map to make the right business decision.

Hence, GeoSteppes are the successive, tiered steps to geographic analysis, with the words and skill of a wandering journeyman cartographer as your guide.

Leave me a note if you need some help along the road of GeoSteppes.

- Sinam Al-Khafaji
Cartographer & Market Planner

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