Here is an intriguing analysis of the oil spill's (now capped) potential "future path" given 3-D projection models simulating ocean currents, displayed in three visualized scenarios. Lots of data driving these models, many (but not all) predicting coastal impact.
"Cut & Paste" Highlights:
"...This is where complex models of the gulf's currents and eddies come in handy. The National Center for Atmospheric Research has used 120 years of data to simulate how the gulf behaves. In order to determine where the oil from the BP spill might end up, the NCAR inserted a "virtual dye"—essentially, digital food coloring—into their enormously complex three-dimensional models. The result: lots and lots of oil-spill scenarios...."
"....What's most noteworthy about these simulations? In the more than 20 scenarios the scientists conducted, the dye never stayed entirely in the Gulf of Mexico. (Two other modeling efforts reached similar conclusions.) If these models are to be believed, then the oil from the BP spill will reach the Atlantic at some point in the next several months, quite likely coating much of the coastline in the process. But there is also a distinct possibility that, depending on the whims of the eddies that form over the next few weeks, a good deal of the spill will remain in the center of the Gulf, drawn away from the Florida straits. ...."
Original article: Where Will All This Oil Be in August?
Slate's interactive models of the Deepwater Horizon spill. By Chris Wilson.
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